基于支持向量回歸與極限學習機的高爐鐵水溫度預測

王振陽; 江德文; 王新東; 張建良; 劉征建; 趙寶軍

doi:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2020.05.28.001

基于支持向量回歸與極限學習機的高爐鐵水溫度預測

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2020.05.28.001

1.
北京科技大學冶金與生態工程學院，北京 100083
2.
河鋼集團有限公司鋼鐵技術研究總院，石家莊 050023
3.
昆士蘭大學化學工程學院，圣盧西亞 QLD 4072

基金項目: 中國博士后科學基金面上資助項目（2019M650490）

詳細信息

通訊作者:
E-mail: wangzhenyang@ustb.edu.cn

中圖分類號: TF543.1
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- 文章訪問數: 1596
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出版歷程
- 收稿日期: 2020-05-28
- 刊出日期: 2021-04-26

Prediction of blast furnace hot metal temperature based on support vector regression and extreme learning machine

1.
School of Metallurgical and Ecological Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
2.
Iron and Steel Technology Research Institute, Hegang Group Co. Ltd., Shijiazhuang 050023, China
3.
School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia QLD 4072, Australia

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: wangzhenyang@ustb.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 選取某4000 m³級別高爐2014年至2019年時間范圍內的日平均數據，以鐵水溫度為目標函數，首先對鐵水溫度的特征參量進行線性與非線性相關性分析、特征選擇與規范化處理，獲取了顯著影響鐵水溫度的正負相關性特征參量。在此基礎上，基于支持向量回歸與極限學習機兩種算法對鐵水溫度構建預測模型，模型均可對鐵水溫度實現有效預測，基于支持向量回歸算法構建的預測模型較優，預測平均絕對誤差為4.33 ℃，±10 ℃誤差范圍內的命中率為94.0%。
- 大數據 /
- 機器學習 /
- 支持向量回歸 /
- 極限學習機 /
- 鐵水溫度
Abstract: The hot metal temperature is a key process parameter for blast furnace (BF) ironmaking that reflects the quality of hot metal, the thermal state of BF hearth, the energy utilization efficiency of BF, and many other information. Prediction of the hot metal temperature in the next smelting cycle will be helpful in gaining a better understanding of the change trend of hot metal quality and BF smelting status in time. With this, corresponding operational measures can be conducted to maintain the BF stable and smooth state, high production, and low consumption. Nowadays, big data technology has made considerable progress toward a more accurate and faster collection, storage, transmission, query, analysis, and integration of mass data, providing a good data foundation for data-driven machine learning models. In addition, with the substantial increase in computer calculation speed and the significant development of algorithms, the prediction accuracy of deep machine learning models has noticeably improved. The development of these technologies provides feasibility for the prediction of important indicators under complex industrial conditions. Based on the data produced from a 4000-m³ BF in a large span time range (2014–2019) and daily time dimension, this paper considered hot metal temperature as the objective function. First, the characteristic parameters of hot metal temperature were processed by linear and nonlinear correlation analysis, feature selection, and normalization methods. Then, the positive and negative correlation characteristic parameters that have a significant influence on the temperature of the hot metal were obtained. Finally, prediction models of hot metal temperature were established based on two algorithms of support vector regression and extreme learning machine. Although both the algorithms can achieve effective prediction, results from support vector regression are better at an average absolute error of 4.33 °C and a hit rate of 94.0% (±10 °C).
- big data /
- machine learning /
- support vector regression /
- extreme learning machine /
- hot metal temperature

HTML全文

圖 1 鐵水溫度初選特征參量樣本散點圖

Figure 1. Scatter plot of the primary characteristic parameters of hot metal temperature

下載: 全尺寸圖片幻燈片

圖 2 鐵水溫度與初選特征參量之間相關系數。（a）Pearson相關系數；（b）Spearman相關系數

Figure 2. Correlation coefficient between hot metal temperature and primary characteristic parameters: (a) Pearson; (b) Spearman

下載: 全尺寸圖片幻燈片

圖 3 鐵水溫度測量值與預測值比對。（a）基于SVR算法；（b）基于ELM算法

Figure 3. Comparison of measured and predictive values of hot metal temperature：(a) prediction value based on support vector regression (SVR)；(b) prediction value based on extreme learning machine (ELM).

下載: 全尺寸圖片幻燈片

圖 4 鐵水溫度預測值與測量值偏差。（a）基于SVR的鐵溫預測值與測量值偏差；（b）基于ELM的鐵溫預測值與測量值偏差；（c）基于SVR與ELM預測鐵溫誤差概率密度分布函數

Figure 4. Deviation of predictive value of hot metal temperature from the measured value: (a) based on SVR; (b) based on ELM; (c) the probability density distribution function of hot metal temperature error based on SVR and ELM

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圖 5 鐵水溫度預測的百分比誤差散點分布統計圖。（a）SVR;（b）ELM

Figure 5. Scatter distribution statistics of percentage error in hot metal temperature prediction: (a) SVR; (b) ELM

下載: 全尺寸圖片幻燈片

表 1 鐵水溫度預測的初選特征參量

Table 1. Primary data items for hot metal temperature prediction

Operating parameters	State parameters
Blast volume	Volume utilization coefficient
Blast pressure	Synthetic load
Blast temperature	Gas utilization efficiency
Blast velocity energy	Daily hot metal production
Coke rate	Pressure difference
Coal injection rate	Permeability index
Nut coke rate	Bosh gas volume
Fuel rate	Bosh gas index
Oxygen enrichment	Cooling water temperature difference
Pulverized coal injection per hour	Current hot metal temperature
Theoretical combustion temperature	Hot metal Si content

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表 2 鐵水溫度終選特征參量

Table 2. Final characteristic parameters of hot metal temperature

No.	Characteristic parameters
1	Fuel rate
2	Nut coke rate
3	Coke rate
4	Blast temperature
5	Bosh gas index
6	Permeability index
7	Hot metal Si content
8	Daily hot metal production
9	Current hot metal temperature
10	Synthetic load
11	Pressure difference
12	Gas utilization efficiency
13	Volume utilization coefficient
14	Cooling water temperature difference

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表 3 SVR與ELM算法鐵水溫度預測結果綜合定量表征

Table 3. Quantitative characterization of SVR and ELM model prediction results of hot metal temperature

Model	MAPE/%	MAE /℃	RMSE/℃	HP(±10 ℃)/%
SVR	0.29	4.33	5.60	94.0
ELM	0.31	4.69	6.09	88.5

下載: 導出CSV

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