三維確定性模型在淺層黃土滑坡穩定性預測中的應用

辛星; 張帆宇

doi:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002

三維確定性模型在淺層黃土滑坡穩定性預測中的應用

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002

辛星^1,2,
張帆宇^1,2, ,

1) 蘭州大學西部災害與環境力學教育部重點實驗室, 蘭州 730000;
2) 蘭州大學土木工程與力學學院, 蘭州 730000

基金項目:

國家自然科學青年基金資助項目(41402240)

蘭州大學中央高校基本科研業務費專項資金資助項目(lzujbky-2017-k19)

973國家重點基礎研究發展計劃資助項目(2014CB744701)

詳細信息

中圖分類號: P642.2
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出版歷程
- 收稿日期: 2017-04-07

Application of a 3D deterministic model for predicting shallow loess landslide stability

XIN Xing^1,2,
ZHANG Fan-yu^{1,2
, ,}

1) Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2) School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

摘要

摘要: 淺層黃土滑坡是黃土高原廣泛分布和頻繁發生的地質災害,造成了巨大的人員傷亡和財產損失.盡管二維確定性模型已被廣泛用于淺層滑坡穩定性預測,但不能充分考慮巖土性質、地層結構、地下水等條件的三維空間變化,這可能與實際的斜坡穩定性不相符.因此,利用能考慮復雜斜坡環境的三維確定性模型評價滑坡穩定性,對獲取更真實的評價結果以及指導滑坡防治工作具有重要意義.本文利用Scoops3D三維確定性模型評價了在淺層黃土滑坡穩定性預測中的適應性和可靠性.首先,模型計算參數敏感性的分析發現黏聚力、滑動視傾角和柵格單元重量對安全系數準確度影響較大,并用于指導獲取詳細的關鍵參數.然后,選取不同分辨率的數字高程模型(DEM)數據,利用Scoops3D模型對典型黃土溝壑中的淺層黃土滑坡穩定性進行預測,并通過詳細的點狀和面狀滑坡分布圖與預測結果的對比發現,該模型對黃土溝壑區的淺層滑坡穩定性預測準確度較高,且點狀滑坡分布圖可能更適合模型適應性的檢驗.最后,混淆矩陣法和成功率曲線法對不同分辨率數字高程模型預測結果可靠性的檢驗顯示,該模型能夠有效地預測黃土淺層滑坡的穩定性,且在高分辨率數字高程模型數據下可以獲得可靠的預測精度.
- 淺層黃土滑坡 /
- 三維確定性模型 /
- 穩定性預測 /
- 數字高程模型分辨率 /
- 精度檢驗 /
- Scoops3D
Abstract: In the loess plateau, shallow loess landslides are especially widespread and frequent geological disasters, causing serious casualties as well as huge property damage. Although two-dimensional deterministic models are widely applied to assess the stability of shallow landslides, they could not sufficiently consider the three-dimensional spatial variation of geotechnical property, layering configurations and groundwater. It might not conform with the actual situation of slope stability. Therefore, the three-dimensional deterministic model with considering complicated slope situation has the great significance to acquire the results that are more accordant with the actual situation. At the same time, it will exercise a profound and far-reaching influence to effectively mitigate landslide disasters. This paper takes the three-dimensional deterministic model Scoops3D to evaluate its adaptation and reliability of predicting shallow loess landslide stability. Firstly, the sensitivity analysis of model calculating parameters indicates that the most influential parameters on accuracy of safety factor are cohesive force, sliding direction of visual angle and the weight of grids, so it could guide to acquire the detail key input parameters. Then, the different resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and geotechnical parameters are selected and used to predict the stability of shallow loess landslides in the typical gully and ridge physiographic region by using the Scoops3D. Comparing the calculated results with the detail inventory of point landslides and facial shape landslides shows that this model has a high accuracy in predicting shallow landslide stability. At the same time, the inventory of point landslides may be more suitable to model verification than facial shape landslides. Finally, the confusion matrix and the success rate curve are used to examine the reliability of predicted results that based on different resolution DEMs. The results prove that this model has a good adaptation to predict the stability of shallow loess landslides in the selected study area. Meanwhile, it could obtain reliable prediction accuracy with the high-resolution DEM data.
- shallow loess landslide /
- three-dimensional deterministic model /
- stability prediction /
- resolution of digital elevation models /
- precision validation /
- Scoops3D

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參考文獻(22)

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