Prediction for chaotic time series based on phase reconstruction of multivariate time series
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摘要: 提出了一種基于多變量相重構的混沌時間序列預測方法.該預測方法從非線性動力學系統中獲取與待預測時間序列相關的信息組成多變量時間序列,首先進行多變量相空間重構,然后利用局域多元線性回歸模型在相空間中進行預測,最后從預測出的高維相點中分離出時間序列的預測值.由于考慮了動力學系統中多個變量之間相互耦合的關系,從而增加了重構相空間的系統信息量,使得相空間的相點軌跡更加逼近原系統的動力學行為.與采用單變量進行預測的方法相比,基于多變量相重構的預測方法無論是單步預測還是多步預測,都能有效地提高預測精度,且具有嵌入維數的選擇對預測精度影響較小的優點.通過對Lorenz混沌信號進行預測,實驗結果驗證了方法的有效性.Abstract: A nonlinear prediction method based on phase reconstruction of multivariate time series was proposed. Together with the candidate time series for prediction, the correlated information of the same nonlinear dynamical system was selected to construct a multivariate time series. In the phase reconstruction space of the multivariate time series, a local multi-variant linear regression model was used to forecast the evolution data of phase point, through which the future data of the candidate time series were predicted. Since the coupled relationship among different variants of the dynamical system were taken into consideration, the reconstructed phase space had more dynamical information and phase point trajectory more approximated the original dynamical behavior. Compared with the univariate method, for either one-step or multi-step prediction, the new method has better prediction preciseness with less sensitivity to the selection of embedding dimension. The validity of the new prediction method was verified by the results of prediction experiments on the Lorenz system.
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