Application of Option Pricing Theory to Decision-making on Mining Projects
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摘要: 礦業工程項目的投資受到許多不確定因素的影響，傳統的凈現值（NPV）法對工程項目的評價未考慮這些不確定因素．應用期權定價理論和方法，研究了礦產品價格的運行模式，在充分考慮礦業投資項目成本和收益的不確定性的基礎上，建立了礦業工程投資決策模型，為礦山投資決策提供了新的思路和決策方法．Abstract: Investment in mining projects is influenced with many uncertainties such as coast, revenue etc. Traditional mining projects evaluation method, NPV, cannot be involved these uncertainties. Based on Option Pricing Theory(OPT), prices of mining outputs are modeled and incorporated into the analysis. Under consideration of uncertainties of mining costs and revenue, an option pricing model, a helpful approach and quantitative tools to the mining project evaluation, is developed.
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Key words:
- mining projects /
- decision-making /
- option pricing /
- uncertainty
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