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考慮非線性蠕變的露天礦邊坡預警閾值確定

Determination of early warning threshold of open pit slope considering nonlinear creep

  • 摘要: 露天礦邊坡監測作為保障人員與設備安全的最后一道防線,其核心在于構建精準的預警閾值。當前我國露天礦邊坡監測系統存在預警閾值設定缺乏系統性和閾值確定缺乏科學理論支撐。對此,本研究提出基于蠕變理論的預警方法:圍繞蠕變曲線發展規律與累計位移量變化特征,通過解析邊坡蠕變三階段的臨界位移比例關系來確定預警值。先以模擬方式獲取應力-應變曲線,求出蠕變所需的彈性模量和黏度系數,再建立蠕變方程推導出位移比例關系式。基于模擬的蠕變曲線得出方程所需的關鍵點及三級蠕變的起點值,結合鎖固段與重正化群理論確定臨界位移閾值,進而求出蠕變演化的四級預警值,并與GNSS監測數據進行對比驗證其準確性。對于突發的異常變形,引入切線角判據完善預警機制。試驗表明,以露天礦C預警閾值為例,蠕變發出Ⅰ級預警(6216mm)至滑坡發生提前了11.6天,之后進行短期的變形速率預警閾值監測,當變形速率發出Ⅰ級預警(97.2mm·d-)后3小時發生滑坡。通過長短周期預警的協同作用,提升了預警系統的準確性和可靠性。

     

    Abstract: As the last line of defense to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment, the core of open-pit mine slope monitoring lies in establishing accurate early warning thresholds. Currently, in China's open-pit mine slope monitoring systems, there are issues of lacking a systematic approach to setting early warning thresholds and lacking scientific theoretical support for threshold determination. To address this, this study proposes an early warning method based on creep theory: by focusing on the development patterns of creep curves and the variation characteristics of cumulative displacement, the early warning thresholds are determined through analyzing the proportional relationships of critical displacements in the three stages of slope creep. First, obtain the stress-strain curve through simulation, calculate the elastic modulus and viscosity coefficient required for creep analysis, and then establish a creep equation to derive the displacement proportional relationship. Based on the simulated creep curve, the key points required for the equation and the starting values of tertiary creep are obtained. By combining the theory of locked segments and renormalization group, the critical displacement threshold is determined, thereby deriving the four-level early warning thresholds for creep evolution. These thresholds are then compared with GNSS monitoring data to verify their accuracy. For sudden abnormal deformation, the tangent angle criterion is introduced to improve the early warning mechanism. Tests show that, taking the early warning threshold of open-pit mine C as an example, the monitoring system issued a Level I warning (6216 mm) 11.6 days in advance of landslide occurrence . Subsequently, short-term monitoring of the deformation rate early warning threshold was carried out: after the system issued a Level I warning based on the deformation rate (97.2 mm?d?1), the landslide occurred 3 hours later. Through the synergy of long and short-term early warnings, the accuracy and reliability of the early warning system have been improved.

     

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