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多健康因子下SABO-ELM模型鋰離子電池剩余壽命預測

SABO-ELM model for remaining life prediction of lithium-ion batteries under multiple health factors

  • 摘要: 鋰離子電池剩余使用壽命(Remaining useful life,RUL)的準確預測對于汽車電池管理系統至關重要,然而RUL預測的準確性和可靠性受到增量容量的影響. 本文提出了一種將先進的信號處理、健康特征提取和機器學習優化技術相結合的RUL預測新方法. 首先,基于鋰離子電池的充放電循環,從原始鋰離子電池性能曲線中提取增量容量曲線,采用卡爾曼濾波對曲線進行降噪,引入斯皮爾曼系數法分析其與容量的相關性. 其次,針對極限學習機(Extreme learning machine,ELM)參數易陷入局部最優導致模型預測性能穩定性不強的問題,提出減法平均算法(Subtraction-average-based optimizer,SABO)對ELM模型中的權值和偏置閾值進行優化. 最后,采用美國國家航天局(NASA)公開的電池數據集對所提方法進行驗證,結果表明,與長短期記憶網絡(LSTM)相比,RUL預測的平均絕對誤差(MAE)、平均絕對百分比誤差(MAPE)分別降低了52.03%和51.98%,均方根誤差(RMSE)降低了42.99%,驗證了所提模型的有效性和準確性.

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is critical for the efficient and reliable operation of automotive battery management systems, which are crucial in the new energy sector. However, RUL prediction accuracy is affected by factors such as capacity regeneration and model performance. This paper introduces a novel approach that combines advanced signal processing, health feature extraction, and machine learning optimization to improve RUL predictive precision for lithium-ion batteries. This paper improves the accurate prediction of the RUL from the following five aspects. First, the incremental capacity (IC) curve, derived from the charge–discharge cycles, is extracted from battery performance data. Since the IC curve is highly sensitive to battery degradation trends, it is a valuable feature for predicting RUL. Second, to mitigate noise and irregularities in raw IC data, a Kalman filter method is applied to denoise the curves, improving the reliability and clarity of the extracted features. Third, 10 health factors (HFs) related to capacity are extracted, and their correlation with battery capacity is analyzed using the Spearman correlation method. This statistical analysis method identifies the most relevant and informative HFs, eliminating weakly correlated ones to reduce model complexity and improve performance. By eliminating HFs with weak correlations, the computational complexity of the prediction model is reduced, while its performance is further refined. Fourth, the extreme learning machine (ELM), known for its fast training speed and good generalization, is optimized to address challenges such as instability caused by random initialization of weights and biases. Using the subtraction-average-based optimization (SABO) method, a novel RUL prediction method is proposed. The SABO algorithm optimizes the weights and bias thresholds of the ELM model, which effectively reduces the risk of local optima and improves its predictive performance and stability. The proposed model is validated against different training datasets published by NASA. Experimental results show that the approach outperforms alternatives such as long short-term memory (LSTM), ELM, and beluga whale optimization (BWO) for ELM at different prediction starting points.This method has good accuracy in predicting the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of RUL in B05, B06, and B07 data sets and is the least error-prone among all models. Compared with the LSTM deep learning model, this method reduces the MAPE index of the RUL prediction error by 51.98%, significantly improving the overall performance. The MAE index decreased by 52.03%, and the RMSE index decreased by 42.99%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method in improving the efficiency of RUL prediction.

     

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