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基于GA–BP神經網絡的邊坡變形預測

Slope deformation prediction based on GA–BP neural networks

  • 摘要: 露天礦山高邊坡的變形預測是保障礦山安全生產的重要手段. 本文以西藏某礦山邊坡為對象,采用高精度合成孔徑干涉雷達對礦區南幫邊坡進行了全天候位移監測,分析了邊坡變形的基本規律;采用小波降噪理論對采集的時序位移監測數據進行了降噪處理,并且為了避免預測模型陷入局部極小值,引入遺傳算法(即GA算法)整合進BP神經網絡的訓練步驟中,用于優化BP神經網絡的初始權值和閾值設置,建立了GA–BP神經網絡邊坡變形時序預測模型,并與BP神經網絡邊坡變形時序預測模型進行對比分析. 研究結果表明: GA–BP模型較BP模型的預測精度提高了10%以上,預測的平均誤差減少了50%以上,而且預測的邊坡變形趨勢與監測值吻合程度更高;GA–BP模型較BP模型收斂速度加快10倍以上,GA–BP模型的回歸系數、模型適應度優于BP模型. 因此,采用GA–BP模型可使邊坡變形預測的精度、收斂速度、泛化能力均得到提高,預測結果更為可靠,可為礦山邊坡安全生產提供保障.

     

    Abstract: Predicting deformation on high slopes is crucial for ensuring the safety of open-pit mining operations. Traditionally, empirical methods and numerical simulations have been employed to predict slope displacement. However, with advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning has emerged as an important method for predicting slope deformation in open-pit mines. Currently, a popular approach is using the backpropagation (BP) neural network to construct a time-series deformation prediction model for slopes. To enhance the BP neural network performance and prevent it from falling into local minima, a genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced to the training step of the BP neural network. This algorithm optimizes the initial weights and thresholds of the BP neural network, leading to the establishment of the time-series deformation prediction model of slopes based on the GA–BP neural network. In this paper, we collected time-series displacement data of slopes from an open-pit mine in Tibet using high-precision synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for all-weather displacement monitoring. The wavelet denoising theory was also used to eliminate interference from abnormal displacement data. The structural parameters of the BP neural network were determined using the grid search method after comparisons. For model validation, we developed two slope time-series deformation prediction models: one using the GA–BP neural network and the other using the BP neural network. We evaluated their prediction effectiveness by examining the RMSE of predicted values, the number of training operations, and model adaptability to training and validation sets. In addition, we forecasted slope deformations at five monitoring points over the next 10 h using test set data not included in the model training. The results show that the GA–BP model achieves over 10% higher accuracy than the BP model in training and validation sets. It also converges >10 times faster and adapts better to model conditions. The maximum average error of the GA–BP model on the test set is only 2.48%, with predicted displacement trends closely aligning with the monitored values. The maximum average error is 6.15%, with predictions deviating from the monitored values. In addition, the GA–BP model reduces the average prediction error at remaining monitoring points by >50% compared to the BP model. Its regression coefficients across the three datasets outperform those of the BP model, demonstrating superior generalization ability. Therefore, the GA–BP model significantly enhances the accuracy, convergence speed, and generalization ability of slope deformation predictions, offering a more reliable tool for ensuring safe production in open-pit mines.

     

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