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基于SSA?LSTM的轉爐煉鋼終點錳含量預測

Prediction of manganese content at the end point of converter steelmaking based on SSA?LSTM

  • 摘要: 錳是鋼鐵中重要的合金元素,加入適量錳元素能提高鋼鐵的性能. 在轉爐煉鋼過程中錳元素的含量直接影響鋼鐵質量,錳元素加入過少會導致鋼鐵產品的硬度和強度不足,錳元素加入過量會導致鋼鐵過脆和生產成本增加. 因此,合適的錳元素添加量對提升鋼鐵質量與減少冶煉成本具有重要意義. 轉爐煉鋼過程中錳元素的添加量主要通過終點錳預測的結果來確定,然而,終點錳含量多少受到多個因素的綜合影響,其中包括氧化反應進程和合金中其他元素的添加量,影響因素呈現非線性、高耦合的特征,導致終點錳預測難度大. 針對轉爐煉鋼終點錳預測過程中數據有含噪聲、強耦合性等問題,提出了一個轉爐煉鋼終點錳含量預測研究架構,基于長短期記憶網絡(Long Short-term memory, LSTM)預測模型,引入奇異譜分析(Singular spectral analysis, SSA)方法去除終點錳預測過程中非線性、非平穩序列的高頻噪聲,提出了一種基于SSA?LSTM的終點錳含量預測方法. 利用河北敬業鋼鐵有限公司轉爐煉鋼生產數據驗證所提預測方法的平均絕對誤差為1.19%,均方根誤差為1.48%. 結果表明,該方法能夠解決數據存在較多噪聲及非線性等問題;與已有的時間序列預測方法相比,經過SSA處理的預測誤差均有所減小,證明了該方法的有效性,為實際生產過程中精準加入合金提供了依據.

     

    Abstract: Manganese is an important alloying element in iron and steel. Adding the appropriate amount of manganese can enhance the properties of steel. The manganese content directly influences steel quality in the converter steelmaking process. Too little manganese results in insufficient hardness and strength of steel products, whereas excessive manganese leads to increased embrittlement and production costs. Therefore, determining the appropriate amount of manganese is crucial for improving steel quality and reducing smelting costs. The quantity of manganese added during converter steelmaking primarily depends on the predicted final manganese content. However, this content is influenced by various factors, such as the oxidation reaction process and the addition of other alloying elements. These factors exhibit nonlinear effects on the manganese content, and the factors are highly interconnected, making accurate prediction of manganese content at the end point challenging. In response to the challenges posed by noise and strong coupling in predicting manganese content at the end point of converter steelmaking, a research framework was developed to address these issues and facilitate accurate predictions. Key influencing factors in the smelting process were identified through Pearson correlation coefficient analysis and mechanistic analysis. Subsequently, the relationship between these influencing factors and end-point manganese content was modeled using the long short-term memory network (LSTM). To mitigate the effects of high-frequency noise in nonlinear and nonstationary sequences, singular spectral analysis (SSA) was employed during the prediction process. This led to the development of a method known as SSA?LSTM for predicting end-point manganese content. The effects of different test sets and the number of neurons on the prediction results were investigated using converter steelmaking production data from Hebei Jingye Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. The proposed method achieved minimal prediction error when the test set comprised 10% of the data and the number of neurons was set to 85. At these parameters, the mean absolute error of the prediction method for end-point manganese was 1.19%, with a root-mean-square error of 1.48%. These results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively addresses issues related to large noise and nonlinear data. Moreover, compared with existing time series prediction methods, the proposed method, particularly after SSA treatment, showed reduced prediction errors. This validates the effectiveness of the method and provides a basis for accurate alloy addition in actual production processes.

     

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