<th id="5nh9l"></th><strike id="5nh9l"></strike><th id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><th id="5nh9l"></th><strike id="5nh9l"></strike>
<progress id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><th id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
<th id="5nh9l"></th> <strike id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><span id="5nh9l"></span>
<progress id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><span id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><span id="5nh9l"></span><strike id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><strike id="5nh9l"></strike>
<span id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
<span id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
<span id="5nh9l"></span><span id="5nh9l"><video id="5nh9l"></video></span>
<th id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><th id="5nh9l"></th>
<progress id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">

模糊層次分析法在我國深空探測方案優選應用探究

Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in deep space exploration program optimization in China

  • 摘要: 中國深空探測是復雜的系統工程,涉及領域多、技術難度大、經費需求高,目前方案優選方法是論證組論證和中介機構專家評估后形成,該方法論證周期長,不易快速做出科學決策。本文基于模糊層次分析模型,考慮技術、科學、經費等多指標多層次結構,建立系統指標評價模型。以中國探月工程中嫦娥四號任務方案為具體算例,綜合專家判斷和理論分析,建立各層次指標的判斷矩陣,計算權重系數,進而實現總體方案的優選應用評價。結果表明,技術、科學和經費這三個因素相對于周期和效益更為重要。在4個備選方案中,由長征四號丙發射中繼星,長征三號乙發射著陸器和巡視器組合體的方案,排序權值最大,因此該方案為最優方案,這也與實際情況一致。本研究可為我國后續各類深空探測方案制定提供快速及科學的理論支撐。

     

    Abstract: China’s deep space exploration program is a complex and systematic project involving many fields and having great technical difficulties and funding requirements. The current program optimization method was developed in response to the demonstration group’s demonstration and the expert evaluation of the intermediary agency. This method requires a long demonstration period and makes rapid scientific decisions difficult. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) are both practical multi-factor and multi-objective decision-making methods that are widely used in many fields. To solve the problem of AHP being difficult to verify and judge for consistency, the concept of a fuzzy, consistent matrix was introduced, followed by the establishment of the FAHP. The introduction of the FAHP into the optimization of the overall scheme for deep space exploration benefits both the selection of the optimal overall scheme at the national level, which enables all relevant parties to reach consensus as soon as possible, and the national scientific decision-making process. This study established a systematic index evaluation model based on the FAHP model, considering the multi-index and multi-level structure of technology, science, and funding, among other things. By combining expert judgment and theoretical analysis, a judgment matrix of indicators at various levels was established and weight coefficients were derived for the Chang’e-4 mission plan in China’s lunar exploration project. Then, the overall plan was evaluated for optimal applicability. The results show that the three factors of technology, science, and funding are more important than time and benefit. Advancement and reliability are the primary control factors under the technical criteria. Scientific value is the major controlling factor when it comes to scientific criteria. The development cost is the primary constraint on the funding criterion. Planning compliance and planning feasibility are the primary controlling factors under the cycle criterion. Scientific output and technological promotion are the major controlling factors under the criterion of benefit. Among the four alternatives, the one in which the relay satellite is launched by the Long March 4C and the lander and rover are launched by the Long March 3B has the largest sorting weight. As a result, this solution is the optimal solution that is also consistent with the current situation. This research can help China provide rapid and scientifically sound support for various deep space exploration programs.

     

/

返回文章
返回
<th id="5nh9l"></th><strike id="5nh9l"></strike><th id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><th id="5nh9l"></th><strike id="5nh9l"></strike>
<progress id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><th id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
<th id="5nh9l"></th> <strike id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><span id="5nh9l"></span>
<progress id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><span id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><span id="5nh9l"></span><strike id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><strike id="5nh9l"></strike>
<span id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
<span id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
<span id="5nh9l"></span><span id="5nh9l"><video id="5nh9l"></video></span>
<th id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l"><th id="5nh9l"></th>
<progress id="5nh9l"><noframes id="5nh9l">
259luxu-164