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新冠疫情下的SEIRD時滯性謠言傳播模型及辟謠策略

Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19

  • 摘要: 隨著互聯網的發展與新冠疫情的蔓延,疫情相關謠言的流量與受關注度大大提高,使其能夠迅速發酵并造成極其不良的社會影響。由此可見,研究網絡謠言的傳播過程并給出遏制網絡謠言傳播的策略有著重大意義。在傳統網絡謠言傳播SIR(Susceptible, infected, recovered)模型的基礎上加入潛在信謠者與鐵桿信謠者群體,引入政府辟謠機制,同時考慮辟謠者與政府辟謠的滯后性以及高等教育普及率對謠言傳播及辟謠過程的影響,建立了SEIRD(Susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected)謠言傳播模型,以研究一個網絡謠言自誕生起,不知情者、潛在信謠者、信謠者、鐵桿信謠者以及醒悟者這五類網民比例在有無政府辟謠、辟謠是否具有滯后性、以及網民不同比例高等教育率下的變化規律,并通過實驗仿真驗證了模型的有效性,為控制網絡輿情傳播提供參考。此外,還提出了用于衡量辟謠者群體及政府權威機構辟謠能力的辟謠系數。研究結果表明,提高高等教育普及率對于減緩謠言傳播、降低謠言傳播峰值有著顯著效果;政府權威機構辟謠對于最終徹底消滅謠言起決定性作用;消滅辟謠的滯后性對于減緩網絡謠言傳播同樣有極大幫助。為此,還提出了一種未來可能的消滅辟謠滯后性的網絡謠言抑制策略。

     

    Abstract: With the increasing popularity of the Internet and the spread of COVID-19, epidemic-related rumors have attracted significant attention, allowing them to brew quickly and pose extremely negative social impacts. It is of great significance to investigate the propagation process of online rumors and offer tentative strategies to curb it. Based on the traditional susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model of online rumor propagation, groups of potential and die-hard rumor believers were introduced in this paper, establishing an authoritative rumor-refuting mechanism. Meanwhile, this paper considered factors such as the time-lag effect of rumor refutation from the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions and the impact of the popularizing rate of higher education on the propagation and refutation of rumors. As a result of the process, the SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected) rumor propagation model was established to study how the proportion of the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and die-hard-infected varies under different popularizing rates of higher education, the presence or absence of the authoritative rumor-refuting institutions, and the time-lag effect of rumor refutation. Finally, the model’s effectiveness was verified via experimental simulation, which provided a reference for controlling the spread of online rumor propagation. In addition, the paper proposed a rumor-refuting coefficient to measure the rumor-refuting ability of the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions. The results show that (1) increasing popularizing rate of higher education significantly slows down the rumor propagation and reduces the rumor propagation peak; (2) refuting the rumors based on the authoritative institutions is decisive for the ultimate elimination of rumors; and (3) eliminating the time-lag effect in refuting rumors facilitates slowing down the propagation of the online rumors. Therefore, the paper puts forward a feasible strategy to eliminate the time-lag effect of online rumor refutation in the future.

     

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