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基于云理論的大壩整體性態評價模型

Evaluation model of overall dam behavior based on cloud theory

  • 摘要: 現有的大壩整體性態評價方法以定性評價為主,主觀性較強。針對這一問題,以單測點監控模型的計算值與監測儀器實測值之間的殘差為基礎,提出采用多測點融合殘差表征大壩整體性態。結合信息熵理論研究了不同測點的殘差變化規律,從而對各測點殘差的融合權重進行了分配,計算了融合殘差。通過對融合殘差進行分布分析,利用逆向云發生器、正向云發生器建立了表征大壩不同性態的概念云,即評價標準。在此基礎上,結合云相似度算法,建立了大壩整體性態的評價模型。算例表明,該模型能夠有效識別大壩監測資料中的異常測值,并能夠定量、客觀地評價大壩整體性態,評價結果合理、可靠,可為保障大壩安全運行提供重要參考。

     

    Abstract: A dam is an important piece of infrastructure for ensuring economic and social development. During operation, because of environmental changes, aging materials, and other factors, a dam may develop accident risks and once it fails, it poses a great threat to society. Therefore, it is of great significance to use reasonable methods for analyzing the monitoring data collected by a dam safety monitoring system and evaluate a dam’s behavior to ensure operation safety. At present, the existing methods are mainly devoted to evaluating the local state of a dam according to the monitoring information of a single measuring point. Relatively few studies are available on the evaluation methods for the overall state of a dam, and the existing methods are mainly qualitative and subjective. To address this problem, the residual between the model calculated value and the measured value was taken as the research basis. The concept of the fusion residual, an important index for characterizing the overall behavior of a dam, was promoted. Combined with the information entropy theory, the variation of residuals at different measuring points was studied, and the fusion weight of residuals at each measuring point was analyzed. The fusion residual was calculated. Based on the distribution analysis of the fusion residual, a concept cloud representing the different states of a dam, namely, the evaluation criteria, was established using a reverse cloud generator and a forward cloud generator. On this basis, an evaluation model of the overall behavior of a dam was established and combined with the cloud similarity algorithm. The example shows that the evaluation method can effectively identify the abnormal value of a dam and evaluate its overall behavior. The evaluation results are reasonable and reliable. The model can evaluate the overall behavior of a dam quantitatively and objectively, and the evaluation results are reasonable and reliable, providing an important reference for the safe operation of a dam.

     

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