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基于有向權值網絡的航班運行風險傳播與控制

Flight operation risk propagation and control based on a directional-weighted complex network

  • 摘要: 為了分析航班運行風險傳播過程,進而有效控制保障飛行安全,基于復雜網絡理論,首先參照民航局咨詢通告選取機組、航空器、運行環境共29個終端因素作為網絡節點,統計民航安全監察記錄,根據事件中節點關系,構建無向網絡;統計前后節點間的作用關系和發生概率,提出一種有向帶權的航班運行風險網絡;然后,引入改進感染率和改進恢復率概念,構建一種適用于航班運行風險傳播分析的改進SIR(Susceptible-infected-recovered)模型;定義感染起始范圍,最后采取多參數控制方式,大規模計算該有向帶權網絡的傳播和控制過程。結果表明:有向網的平均最短路徑為1.788,屬于小世界網絡;參照使用民航常規管控措施,有向網節點感染下降幅度可達到37.4%;對入度值排序前3或前4的節點控制后,感染節點峰值下降率高達50.6%和58.1%,網絡傳播抑制明顯。結果證實:在該航班運行風險有向帶權網絡中,按入度值控制節點對抑制風險傳播最為有效。

     

    Abstract: The flight operation risk is equal to the occurrence probability multiplied by the severity of the consequences. Flight operation risks include many types, forms, and numbers, and they frequently change with conditions. In the face of this complex system, through principle analysis, the risk formation mechanism research, and the spreading process, a scientific risk management and control method can be constructed. Based on the risk management technology, an informative and automated management control system can be developed and applied. The overall safety level of flight operations will be effectively improved. To analyze and study the flight operations risk propagation and then effectively control flight safety based on the complex network theory, 29 terminal factors were selected as network nodes according to the Civil Aviation Administration’s advisory notice, initially including the flight cabin crew, civil aviation aircraft, and operating environment. Civil aviation safety monitoring records from 2009 to 2014 were counted, and an undirected network was constructed based on node relationships. The relationships and occurrence probability between the nodes were counted, and a directed and weighted network was constructed. The concepts of improved infection rate and improved recovery rate were introduced, and an improved susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model suitable for flight operation risks was proposed. Finally, the initial infection range was clearly defined, and a multi-parameter control method was adopted. For directed networks, large-scale propagation and control simulations were calculated. The results indicate that the average shortest path of the directed network was 1.788, which belonged to the small-world network. The directed network infection node decreased to 37.4% with conventional control measures. After controlling top three or four nodes of the entry degree value sequence, the infected nodes peak drop rate was the biggest, as high as 50.6%/58.1%, the risk spread in the network was significantly suppressed. The results confirm that controlling nodes based on the entry degree value is the most effective method to suppress risk propagation in the directed and weighted network.

     

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