基于集成案例推理方法的RH精煉鋼水終點溫度預測
End temperature prediction of molten steel in RH based on integrated case-based reasoning
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摘要: 針對RH工序終點鋼水溫度預測問題, 提出一種基于多元線性回歸和遺傳算法改進的集成案例推理方法.首先, 針對一般案例推理方法中缺少影響因素精選方法的問題, 利用多元線性回歸進行屬性約簡;然后, 針對案例檢索中相似度計算缺少權重計算方法的問題, 利用遺傳算法進行權重優化;最后, 基于精簡的影響因素和優化的權重, 利用改進灰色關聯相似度進行案例檢索, 實現RH終點鋼水溫度預測.利用某鋼鐵企業RH工序實際生產數據分別對多元線性回歸、BP神經網絡、一般案例推理方法和集成案例推理方法進行測試, 結果表明, 集成案例推理方法在多個溫度區間比多元線性回歸、BP神經網絡和一般案例推理方法都有更高的預測精度.Abstract: In regards to the end temperature prediction of molten steel in RH refining, an integrated case-based reasoning (CBR) method based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and genetic algorithm (GA) was proposed.Firstly, MLR was used to intelligently simplify the number of attributes to modify the lack of methods in the accurate selection of influencing factors in general CBR method.Secondly, GA was used to optimize the attribute weights in order to resolve the lack of attribute weights calculation method for similarity computation in case retrieval.Lastly, the end temperature prediction of molten steel in RH refining was realized based on the simplified influencing factors and optimized weights, and using grey relational degree (GRD) in case retrieval.Testing was performed based on the actual production data in RH refining in steelmaking plant, and comparison between MLR method, BP neural network, general CBR method and integrated CBR method was carried out.The results show that integrated CBR method has better prediction accuracy than MLR method, BP neural network and general CBR method in multiple temperature ranges.