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煤與瓦斯突出多指標耦合預測模型研究及應用

Study of the multi-index coupling forecasting model of coal and gas outburst and its application

  • 摘要: 針對煤與瓦斯突出預測準確率問題,在分析煤與瓦斯突出瓦斯地質因素的基礎上,構建了包含瓦斯指標、煤體指標、地應力指標3個一級指標和瓦斯壓力、構造煤厚度等12個二級指標的預測指標體系,通過綜合運用網絡分析法和多類別距離判別法對灰色關聯模型中的輸入端和輸出端進行研究,建立了煤與瓦斯突出多指標耦合預測模型.該模型基于對煤與瓦斯突出瓦斯地質因素的綜合分析,計算預測指標權重,劃分煤與瓦斯突出可能性等級,建立了對突出可能性進行判別的2個判別式.以平煤八礦為例應用該模型對8組預測樣本進行了煤與瓦斯突出可能性判斷,預測結果與實際符合,為礦井煤與瓦斯突出防治提供了技術支撐,證明了煤與瓦斯突出多指標耦合預測模型的準確性和適用性.

     

    Abstract: Coal and gas outburst seriously threatens the safety of underground coal mining. With the increase in coal mining depth, the geological conditions of coal mines become complicated, which adversely affects the safety of coal mining production. Prominent prediction is an important link to reduce the damage caused by outburst accidents. This study investigated the prediction model of coal and gas outburst. On the basis of the analysis of the gas geological factors of coal and gas outburst, a prediction system including 3 major indices (i.e., gas, coal, and crustal stress indices) and 12 minor indices (e.g., gas pressure and tectonic coal thickness) was established. A multi-index coupling prediction model based on the improved input and output of the gray correlation model was proposed. Network analysis and multi-class distance discriminant method were also comprehensive applied to improve the accuracy of coal and gas outburst index prediction. On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the gas geological factors of coal and gas outburst, the model calculates the weight of the prediction index, classifies the possible grade of the outburst, and derives the discriminant formulas to discriminate the possibility of outbursts. Taking the Pingdingshan No. 8 coal mine as an example, the model estimated the probability of coal and gas outburst in eight sets of prediction samples. The predicted results are consistent with the actual conditions, provide technical support for coal mine and gas outburst prevention, and prove the accuracy and applicability of the multi-index coupling prediction model.

     

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