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三元乙丙橡膠老化與氣候關聯性及老化程度全國分布預測

Correlation between EPDM aging properties and climate as well as prediction of the distribution of EPDM aging degree in China

  • 摘要: 利用三元乙丙橡膠(EPDM)在我國11個典型大氣站點暴曬3年的老化數據及氣候環境數據,基于對EPDM老化行為分析以及氣候環境對EPDM作用機制,探究EPDM老化與氣候因子之間的關聯性.通過因子分析與逼近理想解排序法,將多個老化指標轉化為綜合老化值;由灰色關聯度分析,得到影響EPDM老化的關鍵氣候因子為輻照度、濕度、溫度和降雨;通過BP人工神經網絡,建立EPDM綜合老化值與氣候因子間關聯模型.利用我國97個地市級城市氣象數據,預測EPDM在未試驗地區綜合老化值,可視化得到EPDM在我國的老化分布圖.圖形表明,EPDM在我國西部地區,新疆南部、云南南端、廣東南部、海南、臺灣等地區老化程度較嚴重.

     

    Abstract: Based on the analysis of aging behavior of ethylene propylene diene rubber(EPDM) and the mechanism of action of climate on EPDM,the aging data of EPDM exposed for 3 years in 11 typical material weathering test stations and the meteorological data there were studied to find out the relation between atmospheric environment and EPDM aging properties. By using the factor analysis and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS),the comprehensive values of aging properties were gained. With the grey correlation analysis,sever environmental parameters including irradiance,humidity,temperature were found to be the key climate factors which had a significant relation with the degradation of EPDM. Then a BP artificial neural network that connected the climate factors and EPDM aging properties was built. By inputting the meteorological data of cities,the comprehensive values of EPDM aging properties where weathering test had not been performed were predicted and a distribution map of these comprehensive values was draw out. The results show that the aging of EPDM in the south of Guangdong Province,Hainan Island,Taiwan Island,Tibet,and south of Xinjiang are the most serious.

     

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