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基于Wiener過程的鋼廠風機剩余使用壽命實時預測

Wiener process-based online prediction method of remaining useful life for draught fans in steel mills

  • 摘要: 作為煉鋼廠的關鍵設備,風機擔負著轉爐除塵和煤氣回收的重要任務,實現風機剩余使用壽命的準確預測具有重要的實際意義.通過對邯鄲某煉鋼廠風機振動數據的分析,建立了基于Wiener過程的狀態退化模型,在首達時間的意義下,推導出風機剩余使用壽命的概率密度函數的解析表達式,提出了一種基于極大似然估計的參數實時估計方法,從而實現風機剩余使用壽命的在線實時預測.實驗結果表明,相對于文獻中的方法,本文所提出的預測方法可以得到更高的預測精度和較低的預測不確定性.

     

    Abstract: As a crucial device of steel mills, the draught fan plays a key role in converter dedusting and gas recycling, and thus it is significantly essential to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the draught fan. In this paper, a Wiener process-based degradation model is constructed based on vibration data analysis for a draught fan in the Handan steel mill. An analytical expression of the probability density function (PDF) of RUL is derived on the concept of the first hitting time (FHT). A parameter updating scheme is deduced on the basis of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) algorithm for the RUL online prediction of the draught fan. Comparative studies with existing models show that the proposed method can predict the RUL of the draught fan in real time with a higher accuracy and less uncertainties.

     

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