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尾礦庫隱患及風險演化系統動力學模擬與仿真

Dynamic modeling and simulation of hazard and risk evolution for mine tailing ponds

  • 摘要: 針對礦山尾礦庫危害問題,構建了尾礦庫事故隱患關聯的復雜網絡,給出了尾礦庫隱患狀態及風險演化的系統動力學模型,并結合礦山尾礦庫案例進行了應用分析.結果表明,通過隱患關聯的復雜網絡法、隱患轉移的三態法以及風險演化的系統動力學模型的巧妙結合,能夠明確地表征尾礦庫事故隱患及風險演化規律,包括隱患作用關系、遞演途徑、風險程度等.成果應用于臨鋼980溝尾礦庫,仿真結果與980溝尾礦庫事故發展規律的實際情況吻合較好,說明所建模型可有效表征尾礦庫潰壩事故演化的時空規律和風險程度,預測危險的發生.

     

    Abstract: To prevent the accidents of mine tailing ponds, a complex network of relevance between accidents and associated hazards was established and a system dynamics (SD) model of hazard states and risk evolution was illustrated for mine tailing ponds. The complex network and SD model were combined and applied in a case study. The results demonstrate that the hazard and risk evolution rule of mine tailing ponds can be precisely characterized by an ingenious combination of the complex network, tristate method, and SD model. The key findings include hazard action relations, evolution pathways, risks levels, etc. By means of a case study on the Linsteel 980 Ditch tailing pond, the simulation results coincide with the actual development of accidents and also effectively demonstrate the accident evolution diversifications of mine tailing ponds in time and space as well as the risk level, so the model can be used to predict the occurrence of risks.

     

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