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基于卡爾曼濾波的遲滯神經網絡風速序列預測

Wind speed forecasting by a hysteretic neural network based on Kalman filtering

  • 摘要: 通過將遲滯特性引入神經元激勵函數的方式,構造了一種前向型遲滯神經網絡模型.結合卡爾曼濾波方法,將其應用于風速時間序列的預測分析中.在原始風速時間序列的基礎上,構造出風速變化率序列.采用遲滯神經網絡分別對兩種序列進行預測分析,并將預測結果利用卡爾曼濾波方法進行融合,從而得到最優預測估計結果.仿真實驗結果表明,遲滯神經網絡具有更加靈活的網絡結構,能夠有效改善網絡的泛化能力,預測性能優于傳統神經網絡.采用卡爾曼濾波方法對預測結果進行融合后能夠進一步提高預測精度,降低預測誤差.

     

    Abstract: The hysteretic characteristic was introduced into the activation functions of neurons,and a forward hysteretic neural network was proposed. In combination with the Kalman filter algorithm,the hysteretic neural network was applied to wind speed forecasting. A change rate series of wind speed was constructed according to the original wind speed time series. Forecasting analysis of both the series was performed with the hysteretic neural network,these prediction results were fused using the Kalman filter algorithm,and thus the optimal estimated results were obtained. Simulation results show that the hysteretic neural network has more flexible structure,better generalization ability,and better prediction performance than the conventional neural network. The prediction performance can be further improved by Kalman filter fusion.

     

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