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基于云模型的應急決策方法

Emergency decision-making method based on the cloud model

  • 摘要: 針對突發災害事故應急決策過程中存在的模糊性和隨機性問題,提出了一種基于云模型的應急決策方法.首先根據突發災害事故應急的目標和特點選擇決策指標并建立決策指標集;然后基于決策者的語言值及其對應的數域確定決策指標的權重值和評價值,利用逆向云發生器算法生成云模型的數字特征;再利用綜合云的思想,運用云運算規則,得到各應急方案的評價云;最后把應急方案的評價云與評價標準云進行相似性比較,綜合判斷應急方案的評價等級并優選最佳的應急方案.實例研究表明:該方法充分利用了專家的群體信息,實現了應急方案決策中定性語言和定量評價之間的有效轉化,結果更為直觀、合理,便于改善應急決策的客觀性和提高應急管理的效率.

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problem of fuzziness and randomness in the process of emergency disasters and accidents decision-making, this article introduces a method of emergency decision-making based on the cloud model. Firstly, decision indexes are selected according to the target and characteristics of rescue in emergency disasters and accidents, and the set of decision indexes is established. Secondly, the weight values and evaluation values of decision indexes are determined according to decision-makers' linguistic values and the relevant range, and the digital characters of the cloud model are produced by backward cloud generator. Thirdly, the evaluation cloud of each alternative is calculated through the arithmetic rules of cloud. Finally, the similarity between each alternative's evaluation cloud and standard evaluation cloud is compared to obtain the comment grade of each alternative, and the best alternative is selected. Case studies show that the method could take full advantage of expert group information, and make the conversion between qualitative description and quantitative indication more effective. The result is objective and feasible, which could improve decision-making objectivity and emergency management effectiveness.

     

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