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基于巖體加卸載響應原理的強礦震危險性預測

Predicting the risk of strong mining-induced seismicity based on the rock load/unload response theory

  • 摘要: 以撫順老虎臺礦田為工程背景,采用加卸載響應比理論,開展強礦震預測技術應用研究.研究表明:0≤ML≤0.5礦震在各開采深度作為加卸載響應震級的預測效能均較好,對于階段峰值震級的平均預測信度為0.72;ML≥1.4礦震作為加卸載響應震級,具有深度尺度效應,響應震級與開采深度成正比,一般小于預測震級0.5~1.0,對于階段峰值震級的平均預測信度0.60;0.6≤ML<1.4礦震作為加卸載響應震級的隨機性較大,分析是兩種不同機制礦震混合的結果,不適宜作為加卸載響應震級;開采深度越大,地應力環境強度越高,預測敏感性和效果越好.在阜新煤田和門頭溝礦田進行普適性檢驗,預測信度分別為0.8和0.73.試驗結果表明,加卸載響應比理論和方法預測強礦震具有較好的效能和應用前景.

     

    Abstract: Taking Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun of northeastern China as an engineering background,an application study of strong mining-induced seismicity prediction was carried out on the basis of the load/unload response ratio(LURR) theory.It is shown that when the load/unload response magnitude adopts the mining-induced seismicity of 0 ≤ ML ≤ 0.5,the forecasting efficacy is very good in all mining depths and the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.72.When ML ≥ 1.4,the response magnitude is direct proportion to mining depth,and is generally 0.5 to 1.0 lower than the predicted magnitude,while the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.60.When 0.6 ≤ ML<1.4,there might be a mixture of two mining-induced seismicities with different mechanisms,which is not suitable to the load/unload response magnitude due to its wide randomness.With the increase of mining depth,the in-situ stress intensity is higher,and the prediction is better.According to universal tests in Fuxin Coal Field and Mentougou Mine,the forecasting reliability is 0.8 and 0.73,respectively.The results indicate that the LURR theory and methods have a good ability and a broad application in predicting strong mining-induced seismicity.

     

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