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基于貝葉斯神經網絡的帶鋼厚度預測與控制

Prediction and control of strip thickness based on Bayesian neural networks

  • 摘要: 采用貝葉斯統計學原理改進傳統神經網絡算法,通過在神經網絡的目標函數中引入表示網絡結構復雜性的約束項,避免網絡的過擬合以提高網絡的泛化能力.將改進的神經網絡應用于濟鋼1700mm熱連軋機帶鋼厚度預測中,其預報精度、訓練時間和網絡穩定性均優于傳統神經網絡預測;然后應用貝葉斯神經網絡預測帶鋼塑性系數;最后將出口帶鋼厚度和帶鋼塑性系數的實時預測值綜合應用于帶鋼熱連軋厚度控制系統,改進了傳統的厚度控制方式,進一步提高帶鋼質量.

     

    Abstract: The Bayesian statistical theory was adopted to improve traditional neural network algorithms, and constraints representing network structural complexity were introduced to the network objective function in order to avoid over-fitting the networks and enhance the generalization ability. The improved networks were applied to strip thickness prediction in Jigang 1700 mm mill, and the prediction result is superior to that of traditional neural networks in forecasting accuracy, training time and network stability. Then, the Bayesian neural networks were used to predict the plasticity coefficient of strips. Finally, the real-time forecasts of exit thickness and plasticity coefficient of strips were synthetically utilized in the thickness control system of hot strip rolling to improve strip quality further.

     

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