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阿德福韋抗乙肝病毒感染治療動力學模型

Dynamic mathematical model for adefovir dipivoxil anti-HBV treatment

  • 摘要: 基于阿德福韋(Adefovir dipivoxil)與安慰劑治療180余位HBeAg陰性的慢性乙型肝炎(CHB)患者國際聯合研究的臨床數據,以及Nowak等人提出的不帶效應細胞的乙肝病毒(HBV)感染模型,提出了一個由兩個系統組成的數學模型,模型對CHB患者的阿德福韋治療效果提供了一種可能的解釋,特別是可以解釋為什么患者血漿中病毒數目在停止免疫治療后會迅速反彈.該模型對長期的療效做出預測:血清HBV DNA接近中位數的患者需要延長治療時間到5.6a,以清除CHB患者體內的HBV.本研究提示:將血清DNA小于500copies·mL-1作為評價療效的標準過于粗糙.

     

    Abstract: Based on over 180 HBeAg negative patients' anti-HBV infection therapy data of adefovir dipivoxil with placebo for an international co-operation research and the HBV infection dynamic model proposed by Nowak et al, a mathematical model consisting of two differential equation systems was built. This model provided a possible interpretation of the curative effect of adefovir dipivoxil with placebo for HbeAg negative chronic HBV infection patients, particularly explaining why the plasma virus of the patients turnover after stopping the adefovir dipivoxil therapy. This model predicts the long time adefovir dipivoxil curative effect that the patients whose plasma HBV DNAs is near the median values need to prolong treatment time until 5.6 years to delete HBV virus in bodies. This research implies also that the popular treatment standard of HBV DNA<500 copies·mL-1 is too rough to evaluate the effectiveness for aniti-HBV infection therapy.

     

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