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多目標局部殘差平方和的定階方法

Determination of the Order of An AR(p) Model by Using Local Residual Sum of Squares

  • 摘要: 基于實踐應用的需要,通過對自回歸模型中的殘差方差圖定階方法進行研究,提出了局部殘差平方和的定階方法.這種定階方法把多目標規劃理論與事物局部特征結合起來.實例表明:對自回歸模型進行定階時,運用局部殘差平方和的定階方法,能有效地提高自回歸模型的預測精度.對自回歸模型階數的取值上限作了重新界定,并在理論上給出了證明.

     

    Abstract: According to the demand in practice, the method of determining the order in an AR(p) model is extended, and the method of determining the order based on local residual sum of squares is introduced. This method shows that the theory of multiple objective programming and the local character of some sequences can be combined. An example shows that with the method of determining the order based on local residual sum of squares in AR(p), the precision of forecast values increases. The supremum of the order of the AR(p) model is given and proved.

     

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