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機械功能參數下可靠度的最大熵分布和貝葉斯估計

The Maximal Entropy Distribution and Bayes Evaluation of Reliability under the Mechanical Function Parameters

  • 摘要: 根據貝葉斯統計推斷理論,提出了運用蒙特卡洛計算機模擬技術構造機械應力、強度功能參數下的可靠度最大熵先驗分布的原理和方法.通過對圓柱形螺旋彈簧的可靠度計算實例分析,表明了這一方法具有機械工程實用價值,也為今后機械行業制定分布類型統一規范理論計算機械可靠度提供一種探索思路和理論方法.

     

    Abstract: The paper is based on the Bayes statistical theory to conclude the principle and method by using Monte Carle computer similation technique,structuring the reliability maximal entropy distribution under the function parameters of mechanical stress and strength.This method,by means of the counting example analysis of the cylindrical spiral spring reliability,has shown that it has the applied value in machine engineerings,and can also provide a tentative tool and theory for determining the united formal theory of distribution kinds, to calculate mechanical reliability in machine engineering area in the future.

     

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